***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.7 6.3 8.4 79.8 60.3 46.3 0.7 3.9 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.8 10.0 9.2 102.3 64.6 47.6 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.1 8.7 85.6 59.5 44.8 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.0 15.8 8.7 73.9 59.2 47.1 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.4 8.4 76.5 59.8 47.1 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.1 7.6 8.4 70.0 56.1 46.1 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 7.7 8.4 90.6 59.9 45.4 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.4 10.1 80.1 58.7 47.1 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.7 9.0 79.1 59.1 47.1 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.6 10.4 82.3 58.6 47.1 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.2 8.4 78.6 60.3 46.4 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.6 8.2 77.0 59.6 46.6 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.5 6.4 8.6 82.1 59.7 48.1 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.2 16.0 12.9 102.8 63.8 50.9 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.0 14.4 8.1 68.7 61.7 46.7 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.1 8.3 80.4 60.4 46.6 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.4 10.8 9.8 112.9 67.2 49.9 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.1 11.1 82.1 56.5 45.8 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 11.6 9.8 106.9 66.3 49.3 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 14.0 13.1 82.9 57.5 46.7 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.2 8.4 78.5 59.2 45.9 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.1 10.2 11.0 123.3 68.8 51.6 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 14.1 10.6 110.0 67.7 51.6 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.6 15.0 10.8 88.7 60.6 46.2 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.9 8.6 75.0 60.3 45.7 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.7 9.3 84.0 62.9 49.4 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.7 8.6 78.5 60.9 45.7 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.6 17.2 8.2 73.0 59.9 46.2 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 17.4 11.8 83.5 58.6 46.1 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.6 10.3 8.8 93.3 62.4 47.0 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------