***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.2 8.8 72.1 58.7 45.1 3.0 6.2 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.8 8.7 70.8 57.2 44.2 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.5 8.9 72.3 58.3 45.7 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.1 9.7 78.7 60.9 47.2 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.3 8.2 70.2 57.4 46.1 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.6 8.4 72.7 55.4 42.3 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.6 8.4 69.4 54.3 44.1 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.7 15.4 8.2 68.9 55.1 46.2 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.4 8.3 68.6 57.9 45.4 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.2 16.4 9.1 72.2 57.3 46.9 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.8 7.2 66.4 55.3 45.8 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.3 5.7 6.7 64.5 54.9 45.3 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.8 8.0 73.1 56.1 46.3 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.5 11.7 77.0 57.4 47.1 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.5 9.3 81.0 64.3 48.4 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.0 7.8 71.1 55.3 46.0 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.8 8.5 67.9 54.3 44.2 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 9.8 9.8 70.9 54.9 44.3 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.6 9.1 73.9 58.7 45.5 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 9.6 10.1 67.4 52.5 42.0 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.9 13.3 8.4 69.9 60.0 45.0 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.7 9.9 74.9 57.9 46.8 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.8 10.0 79.7 59.8 47.9 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.4 8.9 10.0 73.9 56.8 46.0 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.1 9.8 75.3 60.9 45.7 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.5 7.1 68.2 57.5 45.6 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.0 13.2 9.5 74.7 59.2 45.2 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 11.3 8.8 77.6 61.0 47.0 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 10.9 10.2 70.9 53.8 44.4 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.0 9.0 73.8 57.4 46.0 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------