***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 13.8 11.2 92.8 66.5 46.4 1.0 6.5 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 9.1 8.9 82.7 59.1 42.0 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.6 13.1 12.0 100.8 64.8 45.7 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 1.8 12.1 12.8 98.2 65.2 46.3 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.0 16.0 13.9 113.1 70.8 49.8 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.4 12.2 86.9 56.8 41.8 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.1 10.9 9.4 85.3 59.5 42.8 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.6 18.9 12.7 94.3 59.5 45.4 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.8 14.3 112.1 68.7 48.9 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.8 14.8 108.1 65.7 48.9 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.9 15.0 13.1 102.2 63.8 46.0 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 13.1 11.0 93.3 60.6 45.1 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.9 12.3 97.6 61.5 47.0 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.5 16.7 13.8 92.6 59.7 43.8 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.9 11.1 10.6 90.7 64.9 44.7 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.0 12.7 100.7 63.2 47.8 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.6 9.5 86.8 61.0 44.2 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 22.5 16.6 111.0 67.6 48.2 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 8.5 9.5 87.2 61.0 43.1 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 21.6 16.6 106.1 64.3 48.4 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.0 18.1 14.1 112.5 68.7 48.6 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.7 11.3 9.7 85.3 58.8 42.0 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.1 12.6 11.5 99.7 64.5 47.2 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.9 14.1 15.3 110.0 65.8 47.3 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.4 16.2 14.1 103.5 67.8 50.1 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.2 10.8 10.4 81.1 57.6 41.5 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.7 11.8 12.4 93.6 65.8 47.2 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.3 11.7 11.3 92.3 62.9 44.4 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.2 26.6 16.8 107.0 64.6 47.7 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.9 9.7 87.3 61.3 43.5 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------