***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 24.0 40.8 23.9 196.0 83.7 70.3 1.5 13.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 18.9 30.3 21.2 176.0 81.6 66.8 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.8 34.1 22.8 184.6 81.9 63.4 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.3 21.9 19.9 142.8 73.4 60.3 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.0 19.8 20.1 157.2 76.0 58.9 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.9 13.8 18.4 128.1 69.1 57.0 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 19.4 30.1 23.3 190.1 83.3 71.2 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.8 26.3 24.7 147.8 73.2 59.7 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.4 21.8 20.1 153.8 76.7 57.3 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 17.5 24.2 147.1 74.1 58.0 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.8 19.4 20.1 153.7 74.4 58.3 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.6 16.3 20.6 146.8 72.8 59.2 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.7 17.7 20.9 147.7 75.1 59.0 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 41.5 25.9 161.3 78.7 60.0 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 15.2 18.2 146.9 76.1 62.0 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.1 13.4 18.8 140.3 72.8 57.8 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 21.6 31.0 20.2 167.3 79.2 67.7 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 23.9 25.8 147.4 74.4 60.6 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.2 31.8 20.8 172.1 80.3 63.1 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 26.5 28.1 26.6 144.9 75.7 62.2 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.0 33.0 21.1 169.1 79.0 61.6 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.5 25.5 17.9 150.5 74.5 62.7 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.9 26.7 21.1 169.0 78.6 59.9 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.9 35.1 24.7 166.0 78.6 59.8 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 24.5 36.7 24.8 192.5 82.7 69.3 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.6 11.5 21.2 158.6 74.8 63.4 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 27.7 39.9 25.3 200.6 84.9 72.1 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 14.0 18.1 131.5 72.0 58.7 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 36.0 43.0 26.4 152.7 77.0 62.0 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.9 36.5 22.3 184.5 83.8 67.6 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------