***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.1 22.3 -0.1 48.7 50.0 21.8 22.1 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.3 22.6 21.9 -0.5 43.0 43.6 22.0 23.1 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 23.5 22.7 22.3 -0.5 43.2 44.8 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.7 20.6 0.8 65.7 62.3 15.3 16.3 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.5 20.9 -0.1 50.8 50.5 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 23.6 23.6 19.6 0.5 65.0 60.2 22.0 22.7 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.2 21.9 -0.4 42.3 43.9 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 19.4 -0.2 50.0 49.7 12.1 12.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.5 21.4 -0.1 50.2 49.4 22.3 23.5 24.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.0 20.1 -0.1 51.3 50.5 21.9 22.9 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.5 21.0 -0.3 47.8 47.7 22.6 23.6 24.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.1 20.6 -0.1 50.3 50.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.3 20.6 -0.1 52.6 51.6 23.0 24.2 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.5 22.2 20.6 -0.7 39.7 41.4 22.1 23.5 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.0 22.2 0.7 64.9 61.7 22.7 23.3 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.7 20.9 0.1 53.9 53.7 23.3 24.6 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.8 21.5 -0.6 40.1 41.7 21.4 22.3 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.9 19.3 -0.2 48.2 48.2 21.4 22.1 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 22.0 22.2 22.1 -0.5 42.5 43.1 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.7 17.3 -0.2 49.3 47.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.4 22.0 -0.2 48.0 48.3 22.3 23.4 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 22.0 22.2 21.5 -0.5 41.0 42.8 21.9 23.0 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.3 22.1 22.0 -0.8 39.4 40.6 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.6 22.7 20.8 -0.5 43.8 44.9 22.0 23.2 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.4 21.1 0.2 54.6 53.1 21.9 22.9 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 22.4 23.7 20.0 -0.2 51.0 50.2 22.9 23.7 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.3 21.8 0.1 52.4 52.3 21.7 23.3 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 24.2 24.3 21.3 0.8 66.1 62.7 22.3 23.5 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.0 18.5 -0.3 46.4 46.2 17.2 18.1 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.0 22.3 22.1 -0.4 43.1 44.7 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------