***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.9 21.3 1.0 59.0 58.3 20.4 21.6 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.2 21.0 0.6 57.9 55.8 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.4 21.5 0.8 57.4 56.9 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.2 19.8 1.6 66.8 63.4 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.8 20.1 1.1 58.0 58.4 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 22.9 21.5 18.6 1.4 61.5 60.3 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.9 20.9 0.6 57.0 55.5 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 18.8 0.9 56.7 56.5 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.6 20.4 1.1 58.7 58.5 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.6 19.5 1.1 58.4 58.2 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.6 20.1 1.0 56.8 57.3 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.1 19.9 0.9 57.1 56.6 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.9 19.3 1.0 57.7 57.1 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.8 20.0 0.7 57.4 55.9 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 22.8 23.2 20.6 1.6 67.3 63.7 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.3 20.0 1.2 58.9 59.1 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.4 20.6 0.5 56.5 54.9 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.8 19.0 1.1 58.2 57.7 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.0 21.2 0.6 57.8 55.6 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.0 16.6 0.7 54.7 55.1 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.5 21.0 1.0 58.1 58.2 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.1 20.6 0.6 57.6 55.3 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.0 21.2 0.5 57.0 54.8 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.8 20.1 0.9 58.4 57.1 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.9 22.0 20.0 1.2 61.7 60.4 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.3 19.2 0.8 55.1 55.6 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.2 20.7 1.1 60.0 59.6 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.8 20.2 1.7 66.8 63.7 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.4 18.1 0.9 56.2 56.2 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.1 21.1 0.7 58.1 56.3 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------