***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.3 22.3 0.8 58.0 58.1 21.3 23.0 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.5 22.0 0.6 56.7 55.6 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.3 22.4 0.6 54.4 56.0 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.9 20.7 1.4 67.5 62.4 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.2 20.9 0.7 55.7 56.8 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.3 19.3 1.0 57.6 58.8 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.8 21.9 0.5 56.6 55.7 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.8 19.8 0.7 54.6 55.8 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.6 21.3 0.8 55.6 57.0 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.2 20.3 0.8 55.6 57.1 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.9 21.0 0.6 53.7 55.3 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 23.4 23.3 20.9 0.7 55.0 55.5 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.2 20.2 0.8 55.3 56.5 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.4 20.7 0.4 53.2 53.8 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 24.2 24.3 21.6 1.3 65.7 62.3 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.0 20.8 0.9 57.2 57.8 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 22.4 22.5 21.6 0.5 56.2 55.2 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.7 19.9 0.9 55.2 57.2 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.3 22.9 22.2 0.5 55.7 55.1 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.8 17.7 0.8 54.7 56.5 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.5 21.9 0.7 54.6 57.1 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 23.6 23.5 21.7 0.6 56.0 55.6 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 23.4 23.1 22.2 0.3 52.8 53.4 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.2 22.8 20.9 0.7 54.4 55.7 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.6 20.9 1.0 61.5 60.2 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.3 24.2 20.3 0.7 58.1 56.2 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.5 21.7 1.0 60.3 59.8 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 24.6 24.7 21.1 1.4 66.1 62.2 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 17.7 19.0 0.7 53.8 56.2 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.8 22.1 0.6 56.4 55.8 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------