***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 20.8 21.5 21.9 -1.4 32.3 38.4 21.6 22.6 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.4 21.5 21.8 -1.6 29.4 36.3 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 21.3 21.9 21.8 -1.9 27.1 34.8 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.1 16.3 19.9 -0.6 43.3 46.1 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 21.8 22.6 20.2 -1.7 29.9 36.4 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.7 22.2 18.6 -1.3 35.4 40.4 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.0 21.6 -1.6 30.1 36.2 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 11.9 12.0 18.6 -1.8 32.2 36.5 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 21.4 22.5 20.8 -1.7 27.0 36.2 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 20.9 22.3 19.3 -1.7 31.3 37.2 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 21.5 23.2 20.2 -2.0 27.0 34.1 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 20.9 22.5 19.7 -1.9 30.6 36.1 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 22.4 22.9 19.8 -2.0 30.0 35.6 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 21.3 21.7 20.2 -1.9 26.7 33.4 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.6 22.0 -0.6 43.2 45.4 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 22.8 23.8 20.1 -1.7 30.5 37.3 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 20.6 20.3 21.4 -1.5 29.9 35.8 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 20.1 21.4 18.5 -1.8 31.5 36.4 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 21.0 21.3 21.8 -1.7 29.6 35.7 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 17.4 17.8 16.6 -1.8 31.2 36.5 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 21.5 22.2 21.4 -1.7 27.9 35.9 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.6 21.5 -1.4 33.8 36.9 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 21.1 21.2 21.7 -2.0 25.7 33.1 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 21.2 21.9 20.2 -1.9 27.5 34.6 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 21.5 22.5 20.6 -1.3 33.5 39.3 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 22.7 22.4 19.0 -2.1 28.9 34.9 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 21.3 22.1 21.3 -1.3 33.0 39.6 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 22.9 23.2 20.8 -0.6 42.4 45.6 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 15.4 17.4 17.8 -1.9 30.4 35.3 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 20.9 21.4 21.8 -1.6 28.9 36.2 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------