***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.1 23.7 -0.6 44.4 44.3 23.4 24.6 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.1 22.8 23.0 -1.5 33.1 33.9 22.8 25.1 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.0 23.3 -1.4 36.6 37.3 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 18.7 19.1 21.9 0.8 65.4 62.4 16.1 18.4 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.8 22.4 -0.4 51.0 49.4 23.8 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.5 25.6 21.7 1.0 69.0 65.4 22.5 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.2 22.7 23.0 -1.4 34.5 35.0 22.7 24.6 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.3 20.5 -0.5 52.6 49.6 12.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.5 24.7 23.1 -0.7 46.8 45.7 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.5 21.2 -0.6 48.6 47.2 23.7 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.6 25.3 22.7 -0.8 46.8 46.2 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.8 21.9 -0.2 56.1 52.3 23.0 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.9 26.2 23.1 -0.1 58.7 54.4 24.0 25.7 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 22.9 22.8 21.5 -1.9 28.9 31.0 23.4 24.8 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 25.9 26.8 24.8 0.6 66.2 60.8 23.8 25.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.8 22.9 0.0 58.8 55.2 23.9 26.1 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 22.1 21.5 22.3 -1.8 28.4 30.3 22.1 24.1 25.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.3 23.1 19.9 -1.0 41.3 42.0 22.8 24.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.6 22.8 23.0 -1.6 32.0 33.6 22.8 24.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 20.9 20.7 18.5 -0.6 49.5 46.8 18.6 20.7 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.8 23.5 -0.8 44.5 43.1 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 22.6 21.9 22.2 -1.8 26.2 29.8 22.2 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.5 22.9 22.8 -1.9 29.0 31.6 23.1 24.4 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.7 23.4 21.8 -1.5 35.5 36.7 23.3 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.0 24.5 22.9 -0.3 49.1 48.1 23.7 24.6 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.5 21.7 0.0 59.8 54.8 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 25.2 24.4 23.4 -0.4 45.9 46.4 23.2 24.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 26.7 26.5 23.2 0.8 67.9 63.2 23.9 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.4 18.5 19.3 -1.1 40.3 41.0 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.1 23.2 -1.4 35.6 36.2 22.9 24.6 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------