***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.4 12.9 -0.2 46.3 47.2 9.9 10.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.1 12.4 -0.3 40.5 44.0 9.7 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.2 12.9 -0.3 41.4 44.4 11.9 12.9 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 10.6 0.3 60.2 56.4 7.8 8.3 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.8 10.9 0.0 48.8 49.2 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.3 9.2 0.5 63.5 60.4 8.1 9.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.5 12.4 -0.3 41.7 44.3 10.0 10.9 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.8 9.0 0.1 52.4 52.1 3.9 4.8 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 11.0 0.0 48.7 50.3 10.0 10.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.6 9.6 0.1 51.6 51.6 9.7 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.4 10.5 0.0 51.3 50.7 9.3 10.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.0 9.7 0.1 52.6 51.9 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.9 9.5 0.2 56.0 54.7 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.7 10.8 -0.1 47.3 47.6 10.2 10.9 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.8 12.4 0.6 68.1 62.6 10.5 10.9 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.3 10.0 0.2 55.2 53.3 9.9 11.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.4 12.0 -0.3 39.1 43.0 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.1 8.8 0.0 49.0 49.9 8.5 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.0 12.4 -0.3 39.9 43.8 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.6 7.2 0.1 51.0 51.5 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 12.2 -0.1 48.4 48.8 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.5 12.1 -0.3 40.0 43.7 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.4 12.4 -0.3 38.4 42.8 9.3 9.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.1 10.7 -0.1 47.6 48.0 9.6 10.3 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.3 12.0 0.0 51.8 50.6 9.6 11.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.7 9.0 0.1 50.2 52.2 8.9 9.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.3 12.5 0.0 50.6 49.8 9.8 11.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.9 11.1 0.5 64.4 59.9 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.5 8.3 0.1 49.2 50.8 7.8 8.5 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.8 12.7 -0.3 42.1 44.4 10.1 11.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------