***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.4 11.7 0.4 49.1 53.1 8.2 9.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.6 11.2 0.3 49.5 52.5 8.5 9.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.5 11.6 0.3 48.6 52.6 10.5 11.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.2 9.2 0.6 54.7 56.7 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.7 9.2 0.4 49.7 53.5 7.3 8.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.3 7.7 0.5 52.0 54.7 6.2 8.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.5 11.2 0.3 49.8 52.1 8.6 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.8 7.5 0.4 51.9 53.8 2.9 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.2 9.4 0.3 48.5 52.9 9.0 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.5 8.1 0.4 51.0 53.5 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.2 8.7 0.3 50.7 52.9 7.5 9.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.8 8.1 0.4 52.0 53.8 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.9 7.6 0.4 51.7 53.9 7.1 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.1 9.5 0.4 52.4 54.1 9.1 9.8 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.8 10.4 0.7 58.5 57.5 8.7 10.1 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.1 8.2 0.4 51.3 53.7 8.3 10.1 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.6 10.9 0.3 50.4 52.6 8.5 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.4 7.4 0.5 52.5 54.3 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.3 11.2 0.3 49.9 53.1 8.4 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.9 5.9 0.6 52.8 55.7 3.3 4.8 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 10.7 0.3 48.2 52.5 7.9 9.8 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.0 10.9 0.4 53.8 54.3 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.2 11.2 0.3 50.0 52.8 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.4 9.1 0.4 51.0 53.4 8.0 9.4 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.0 10.5 0.6 51.4 54.9 8.2 10.0 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.3 7.5 0.4 52.1 54.3 7.0 9.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.2 11.2 0.5 50.9 54.4 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.1 9.4 0.7 56.1 57.5 6.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.5 7.1 0.6 53.3 55.5 6.7 7.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.0 11.4 0.3 49.0 52.3 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------