***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.3 15.4 0.7 58.7 57.8 10.3 12.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.0 14.5 0.2 44.4 48.3 10.3 11.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.9 15.2 0.4 50.2 52.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 11.3 11.5 13.4 1.4 73.1 72.6 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 11.8 11.7 14.1 1.1 66.5 65.5 8.6 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 11.6 12.0 12.2 2.0 84.6 83.9 8.1 9.3 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.2 14.6 0.2 45.5 48.5 10.8 11.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.8 6.8 11.8 1.4 72.8 71.8 4.5 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 12.8 12.8 14.3 1.2 69.3 67.1 10.6 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.9 12.6 1.3 71.6 69.8 9.9 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.2 13.9 1.2 68.9 68.2 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.3 12.9 1.4 73.1 72.0 8.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 12.1 12.6 13.2 1.7 80.4 79.2 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.2 12.1 13.2 0.5 52.3 54.4 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 14.0 14.4 15.9 1.9 81.0 79.8 10.8 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.4 13.5 1.5 75.0 73.9 10.3 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.6 13.9 -0.1 40.7 44.5 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 11.1 11.3 11.6 1.0 65.9 64.8 8.5 9.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.5 14.6 0.2 43.8 48.0 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.5 10.2 1.2 70.3 69.5 5.2 5.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.2 15.1 1.0 65.7 64.0 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.5 14.1 -0.2 39.4 43.8 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.4 10.5 14.6 0.1 43.3 47.7 9.8 11.1 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.8 13.4 0.7 57.3 58.6 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 11.7 12.6 15.1 1.1 64.3 63.7 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.3 12.6 12.2 1.6 76.2 76.3 9.2 10.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 12.0 12.2 15.2 0.9 61.0 61.0 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 11.8 12.2 14.1 1.7 78.1 76.9 8.3 10.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 10.4 10.1 11.1 1.1 65.9 65.8 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 12.3 11.9 14.9 0.3 47.1 49.6 10.9 12.0 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------