***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 56.8 132.2 71.3 63.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 58.9 62.7 57.3 134.3 70.6 65.4 35.1 45.7 60.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 62.5 64.2 55.6 131.1 74.0 63.4 42.9 54.0 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 70.8 92.0 59.6 125.2 70.4 60.9 47.1 63.5 90.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 46.6 64.9 57.4 123.5 70.5 60.6 35.4 40.5 64.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 42.4 58.8 66.4 121.9 67.4 60.4 26.6 36.0 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 62.6 63.8 59.3 137.5 72.6 66.6 34.8 48.3 61.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 72.0 85.4 61.9 121.9 67.5 61.5 49.2 65.0 84.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 57.6 59.1 58.0 126.4 71.7 61.1 35.2 44.8 56.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 52.3 54.5 63.1 123.4 68.7 61.1 44.4 47.5 53.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 50.2 54.6 52.2 116.7 65.3 59.0 25.8 44.7 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 46.1 59.2 50.3 114.8 64.3 58.3 26.4 40.9 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 46.9 49.0 55.0 110.7 63.8 56.4 30.2 42.3 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 75.6 92.8 65.9 121.3 70.4 60.8 44.5 68.1 87.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 48.0 68.4 58.3 129.8 70.7 61.1 29.4 42.1 64.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 41.0 47.5 52.8 111.9 64.4 57.0 24.9 38.3 48.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 53.7 57.1 60.0 140.1 74.4 68.1 35.8 41.0 52.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 61.2 82.2 71.5 124.6 73.0 62.1 43.5 54.5 67.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 62.4 69.4 55.6 130.2 70.9 63.7 40.7 49.9 63.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 69.6 79.2 84.8 125.5 71.9 63.8 49.4 65.5 73.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 64.4 66.7 55.5 128.9 71.4 61.7 39.8 53.1 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 62.8 75.4 60.1 135.3 74.9 66.8 34.8 45.5 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 53.7 62.1 55.2 124.8 72.4 61.5 38.8 49.4 58.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 82.8 87.2 64.2 126.0 73.6 62.4 38.8 58.3 69.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 67.4 67.7 63.7 129.2 69.7 62.4 46.1 55.8 66.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 40.6 47.4 50.3 112.6 63.0 57.4 26.0 36.5 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 68.8 68.6 63.1 129.9 70.1 63.0 31.1 51.0 57.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 51.7 68.7 56.7 122.6 68.9 59.8 35.4 46.7 64.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 92.6 117.6 76.2 123.6 70.9 62.1 69.8 79.9 96.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 57.5 59.8 56.8 133.3 71.3 64.6 32.6 45.0 58.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------