***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 108.8 70.7 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.5 10.6 11.3 113.2 67.0 53.6 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.1 12.3 10.8 105.8 66.8 54.1 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.3 28.6 11.2 109.2 71.3 57.2 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.2 19.2 11.7 116.1 70.5 56.8 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.3 17.6 13.2 110.3 70.2 57.6 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.6 12.7 10.9 111.1 66.5 53.9 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.5 21.6 13.8 122.1 70.4 57.2 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.2 15.8 12.5 122.4 71.4 55.4 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 18.3 13.6 119.9 70.2 55.9 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.2 17.2 10.9 112.6 71.2 57.2 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.1 15.7 11.0 117.1 69.9 56.6 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.2 18.4 11.5 110.4 71.0 57.3 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.2 16.1 13.4 108.4 64.6 53.6 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.0 20.2 10.4 103.4 69.6 57.2 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 17.0 10.5 106.8 70.4 57.1 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.0 10.8 11.4 123.7 67.9 53.4 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 13.3 15.2 116.0 67.8 53.8 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 11.8 11.3 112.3 66.5 53.8 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.5 15.6 19.5 121.5 66.7 55.5 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.4 13.9 11.3 114.5 71.5 54.8 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.1 12.4 130.4 68.3 54.2 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 13.3 11.4 108.0 65.2 53.9 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.8 16.1 13.0 109.9 66.5 53.7 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.6 18.6 11.9 111.9 69.4 55.5 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.2 17.7 11.2 115.1 73.0 57.6 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.5 11.9 11.5 110.8 69.0 55.9 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.1 22.5 10.5 105.4 71.1 57.5 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 26.2 16.6 116.7 67.5 54.5 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.8 11.1 10.9 108.7 66.8 54.2 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------