***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 135.4 69.2 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 11.5 12.3 114.1 65.9 56.3 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.0 12.6 126.5 68.5 58.4 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 21.3 26.4 15.5 126.4 73.9 61.6 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.5 14.6 121.5 72.4 60.4 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.1 14.9 16.3 107.9 69.7 56.3 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.0 10.3 13.5 120.2 67.7 58.0 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.1 19.3 15.1 116.4 68.0 57.6 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.8 14.4 124.1 71.7 59.8 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.0 20.7 15.1 116.4 67.4 58.0 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.9 17.9 12.9 112.0 70.7 58.3 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.4 15.7 12.3 110.2 68.5 57.0 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.6 13.7 102.9 68.8 56.3 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.3 14.1 104.5 62.5 54.5 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.0 15.3 15.6 132.1 75.1 61.5 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.7 12.0 13.1 103.5 70.5 57.2 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.5 12.6 111.1 63.4 54.2 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 14.6 16.6 113.0 63.4 57.7 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.6 11.6 111.5 64.6 55.6 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 16.9 20.6 116.7 64.0 58.2 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.3 18.8 13.6 129.7 71.6 59.7 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.5 12.3 110.1 64.3 54.2 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.5 13.3 11.4 109.1 63.8 54.6 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.0 13.1 14.4 113.9 63.8 57.2 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.7 20.4 16.0 134.0 70.8 60.5 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 12.6 12.4 104.8 66.6 56.4 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 18.5 15.6 133.2 69.1 59.8 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 13.7 14.9 119.5 72.7 60.4 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 19.7 17.9 113.1 63.5 57.8 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.0 12.6 120.6 67.3 57.7 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------