***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 13.6 137.4 70.3 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.1 12.2 13.7 142.0 72.7 59.7 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.8 17.8 14.7 154.3 74.4 61.7 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.2 20.1 16.9 173.5 76.5 62.3 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.4 20.7 16.6 167.9 76.6 62.8 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.5 18.8 21.4 169.8 78.0 64.4 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.8 14.9 13.7 140.6 70.8 60.5 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 26.1 42.0 19.1 179.6 81.9 66.1 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.4 24.0 16.6 167.6 77.8 62.2 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.8 26.3 19.0 176.4 80.9 64.6 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.1 22.1 15.4 169.7 78.7 64.1 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.5 19.5 15.5 172.6 79.3 64.7 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.1 14.9 17.4 158.3 75.0 63.2 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.1 20.5 18.0 147.3 69.5 61.0 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 5.1 22.3 16.7 186.8 79.7 61.9 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.9 15.5 16.3 163.0 75.5 63.5 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.7 12.1 13.1 130.2 67.8 58.3 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.1 30.6 21.7 173.5 79.9 65.1 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.7 14.4 13.8 143.5 72.4 59.9 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 22.3 27.7 25.2 161.4 77.8 65.7 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.5 19.4 14.8 158.9 73.5 60.9 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.1 13.5 13.3 125.6 66.0 57.9 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.5 16.2 14.4 148.4 73.0 60.5 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.5 27.9 18.6 166.6 76.2 62.7 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.0 17.9 16.8 148.8 72.1 60.3 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.0 21.4 16.1 173.5 82.0 64.2 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.3 15.3 15.5 133.0 70.3 58.7 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 22.2 17.2 186.2 78.9 63.4 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.3 38.2 22.9 164.5 77.7 64.7 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.1 17.5 14.0 145.6 74.6 60.6 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------