***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 143.2 75.2 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 19.1 24.3 20.0 163.3 77.2 69.2 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.3 30.5 17.5 137.8 72.9 62.4 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 15.5 18.4 16.0 104.4 64.8 57.0 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.6 14.9 14.6 100.0 65.6 53.9 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.6 15.5 104.8 63.8 54.2 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 17.6 23.6 21.3 171.6 77.1 70.3 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.0 21.7 14.0 87.9 59.8 49.8 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.8 18.6 14.5 102.5 66.2 53.4 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.0 14.3 15.4 96.3 63.7 51.5 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.5 13.1 90.3 61.9 51.4 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.9 11.4 80.2 59.0 49.0 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.7 12.3 82.8 63.5 49.4 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 30.6 20.3 125.7 71.7 60.4 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.2 13.3 15.5 110.5 71.5 57.6 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.9 12.9 87.8 63.8 51.1 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 24.2 31.1 22.9 187.7 79.6 73.7 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 18.2 18.0 105.5 64.7 53.3 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 20.1 28.1 18.9 150.0 76.0 67.0 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 24.7 19.4 107.1 65.2 53.2 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.3 24.4 15.8 118.2 69.4 58.0 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 24.2 34.3 22.2 168.1 78.7 71.4 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.3 24.7 18.1 133.0 74.2 63.2 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.1 25.1 18.2 119.2 69.2 57.8 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.6 28.4 19.0 123.7 71.6 60.2 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.8 10.5 76.6 63.5 49.2 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 25.0 33.9 20.5 138.4 73.8 63.3 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.7 10.6 14.2 96.9 65.5 55.1 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 30.4 18.8 106.3 63.8 53.0 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 16.6 19.3 19.2 154.4 75.7 67.0 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------