***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 21.9 -0.3 50.0 46.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.9 21.7 -0.5 46.9 45.2 22.0 23.1 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.4 23.7 22.2 -0.2 52.4 49.3 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.3 20.4 -0.3 51.9 48.3 15.3 16.3 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 23.9 24.2 20.9 -0.1 55.3 51.2 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.4 23.1 19.4 0.2 58.6 54.4 22.0 22.7 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.4 21.5 -0.6 45.8 43.6 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.0 19.5 0.0 56.7 51.7 12.1 12.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.7 21.4 0.0 56.1 51.8 22.3 23.5 24.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.1 20.2 0.0 56.5 51.4 21.9 22.9 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 23.9 24.0 20.8 0.1 60.5 54.2 22.6 23.6 24.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.5 20.6 0.2 60.5 54.6 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.6 20.5 0.3 62.4 56.0 23.0 24.2 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.5 20.7 -0.2 49.4 47.6 22.1 23.5 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.4 21.1 -0.3 51.5 49.0 22.7 23.3 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.8 20.8 0.2 60.1 55.3 23.3 24.6 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 21.2 21.9 21.2 -0.6 42.7 42.0 21.4 22.3 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.3 22.2 19.2 -0.2 51.3 48.0 21.4 22.1 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 22.0 22.9 22.0 -0.3 48.9 47.4 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 17.7 18.6 17.2 -0.4 47.4 45.5 18.2 18.7 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.5 21.9 -0.1 52.7 49.9 22.3 23.4 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 21.9 22.3 21.3 -0.5 42.6 43.0 21.9 23.0 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.3 22.0 -0.1 51.9 49.8 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.4 20.8 -0.2 52.1 48.9 22.0 23.2 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.0 20.5 -0.4 50.4 46.2 21.9 22.9 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.0 20.3 0.1 57.9 53.2 22.9 23.7 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.3 21.1 -0.4 48.3 45.5 21.7 23.3 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 23.8 23.8 20.9 -0.2 52.7 50.3 22.3 23.5 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.0 18.1 18.3 -0.3 47.7 46.4 17.2 18.1 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.8 21.9 -0.4 49.1 46.3 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------