***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.3 -1.2 36.6 40.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 20.2 20.6 19.0 -1.4 33.7 38.4 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 19.9 21.4 19.5 -1.1 37.8 40.7 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 11.8 13.4 17.8 -1.1 37.0 40.0 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.2 18.1 -1.1 41.4 41.0 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.4 16.8 -0.9 42.1 43.8 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 20.3 20.4 18.8 -1.4 32.9 37.9 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.8 17.0 -1.1 40.0 42.1 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.8 18.6 -1.0 41.7 41.6 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.7 17.5 -1.1 41.0 41.7 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.2 18.0 -0.9 42.3 42.7 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.9 17.9 -1.0 41.6 43.4 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.0 21.7 17.6 -0.9 42.4 43.7 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.5 18.2 -1.2 35.8 40.9 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 18.8 19.8 18.2 -1.0 33.4 40.1 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.5 17.9 -0.9 42.3 43.0 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 20.0 20.0 18.5 -1.5 32.4 37.1 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.5 21.2 16.8 -1.2 39.6 40.9 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 19.9 20.9 19.3 -1.2 35.2 39.4 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.6 16.7 14.8 -1.3 36.4 40.2 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.5 19.1 -1.1 40.9 41.0 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.5 20.9 18.6 -1.4 33.1 37.8 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.3 19.3 -1.1 37.1 40.8 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.5 18.2 -1.1 39.5 41.2 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.1 17.9 -1.2 38.1 40.1 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.8 21.2 17.5 -1.0 40.7 43.2 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.8 18.5 -1.2 36.7 39.5 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 19.3 19.8 18.2 -1.0 36.6 40.6 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.5 16.3 15.9 -1.3 37.3 40.6 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 20.0 21.2 19.2 -1.3 34.6 39.1 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------