***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.2 -0.3 45.2 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.2 22.7 21.0 -0.4 47.0 46.7 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 21.1 23.0 21.3 -0.2 47.9 48.0 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 14.0 15.9 19.8 -0.3 47.7 47.6 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 21.3 23.7 20.0 -0.2 50.9 48.8 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 20.3 23.2 18.7 0.1 53.3 51.0 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.6 20.9 -0.5 50.1 46.1 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.8 12.2 18.7 -0.2 49.6 49.2 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.0 23.5 20.4 -0.1 50.9 48.9 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 20.3 22.7 19.2 -0.2 49.9 48.8 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.3 23.9 19.9 0.1 53.6 50.7 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 20.2 23.1 19.8 0.0 52.7 50.8 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 21.2 24.2 19.5 0.1 53.3 51.1 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.6 22.2 19.8 -0.4 47.1 47.6 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 21.7 23.2 20.2 -0.2 47.4 48.1 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.0 24.9 19.8 0.1 54.3 51.2 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.9 20.6 -0.5 45.4 46.0 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 19.5 21.1 18.4 -0.4 45.8 47.3 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 20.8 22.7 21.2 -0.3 48.4 47.5 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.8 17.3 16.3 -0.6 44.3 46.3 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 20.8 23.2 21.0 -0.2 48.2 48.1 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 21.1 22.9 20.6 -0.5 46.1 46.1 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.7 23.1 21.2 -0.2 51.6 48.5 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 20.6 22.3 19.9 -0.3 47.7 48.0 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 21.0 22.9 19.8 -0.3 47.5 47.0 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 21.0 23.2 19.3 -0.2 52.7 49.4 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 20.8 22.5 20.4 -0.4 46.0 46.8 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 21.4 23.2 20.1 -0.2 48.8 48.7 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.4 16.9 17.4 -0.6 44.6 46.5 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 20.6 22.7 21.2 -0.4 48.2 47.1 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------