***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 22.2 -0.8 40.6 43.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 21.3 21.8 22.1 -0.8 38.0 43.4 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.5 22.9 22.4 -0.6 44.1 44.5 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.2 21.0 -0.7 42.0 44.0 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.1 21.1 -0.6 41.8 45.0 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.7 22.8 19.6 -0.4 45.6 47.0 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.6 21.9 -0.9 38.4 42.6 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.7 19.7 -0.6 43.1 45.2 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.5 21.5 -0.6 41.6 45.5 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.0 20.3 -0.7 41.4 44.6 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.6 23.7 21.0 -0.4 45.0 46.7 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.3 23.7 20.8 -0.4 46.1 47.3 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.8 20.5 -0.4 46.7 48.1 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.4 20.9 -0.6 41.9 44.8 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.7 21.5 -0.6 45.4 45.6 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.0 20.8 -0.4 46.1 47.3 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 20.6 21.2 21.6 -0.9 38.5 42.3 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.8 19.4 -0.8 39.1 42.8 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 21.0 22.0 22.3 -0.7 39.9 44.6 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.4 18.4 17.3 -1.0 37.9 41.9 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.3 22.1 -0.6 41.9 44.7 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.8 21.7 -0.9 38.6 43.1 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 21.1 22.5 22.3 -0.5 42.8 46.0 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.0 20.9 -0.7 41.9 44.2 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.5 22.9 20.9 -0.8 41.3 43.4 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.4 20.5 -0.5 47.0 47.0 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.5 22.7 21.4 -0.8 40.1 42.7 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.3 23.3 21.4 -0.6 43.8 45.2 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 17.9 18.4 -0.9 38.9 42.6 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.1 22.3 -0.8 39.7 43.7 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------