***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 24.8 0.8 62.9 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.7 25.7 24.7 0.8 62.2 59.7 22.8 25.1 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 26.5 26.4 25.4 1.3 68.2 64.8 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 19.7 19.7 23.2 1.0 70.2 63.0 16.1 18.4 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 26.6 26.6 24.4 1.6 72.4 67.7 23.8 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 25.6 25.7 22.6 1.9 72.4 69.8 22.5 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 26.4 25.1 24.4 0.5 59.5 57.1 22.7 24.6 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 15.5 15.2 22.8 1.9 72.4 69.5 12.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 26.4 26.7 25.2 1.7 72.9 68.5 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 25.9 25.9 23.6 1.8 73.2 69.0 23.7 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 26.3 26.3 24.4 1.9 72.7 69.8 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 25.8 25.9 24.0 2.1 73.5 71.4 23.0 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 26.5 26.8 24.4 2.4 75.5 73.1 24.0 25.7 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.3 24.0 1.3 69.0 65.2 23.4 24.8 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 26.8 27.0 24.5 0.8 67.3 60.6 23.8 25.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 27.1 27.2 24.5 2.1 73.7 71.5 23.9 26.1 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.3 24.0 0.5 56.4 56.7 22.1 24.1 25.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 25.1 24.9 22.4 1.5 70.3 66.4 22.8 24.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 26.2 26.8 25.1 1.1 65.2 62.9 22.8 24.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 21.3 21.1 20.3 1.3 68.3 64.8 18.6 20.7 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 26.5 26.5 25.3 1.3 68.2 64.7 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.4 24.1 0.6 57.2 58.3 22.2 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.6 25.3 1.4 68.1 66.3 23.1 24.4 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 26.0 25.5 24.0 1.4 70.0 66.1 23.3 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.1 26.5 23.5 0.7 63.1 59.0 23.7 24.6 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 26.3 26.6 23.7 2.0 72.4 70.4 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.8 24.0 0.6 61.1 58.6 23.2 24.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 26.9 27.0 24.1 1.2 71.5 64.5 23.9 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.2 20.3 21.5 1.4 69.1 65.5 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 26.4 26.2 25.0 0.9 63.8 60.8 22.9 24.6 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------