***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 -0.9 37.4 41.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.6 10.3 -1.0 35.3 40.7 8.5 9.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.9 10.5 -0.7 39.1 43.0 10.5 11.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.0 8.5 -0.8 33.6 41.5 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.9 7.5 8.6 -0.7 35.3 42.4 7.3 8.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.7 7.2 -0.4 42.9 46.1 6.2 8.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.4 8.7 10.3 -1.0 34.2 39.8 8.6 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.1 7.2 -0.7 34.3 42.9 2.9 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.2 9.1 -0.7 35.6 43.2 9.0 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.1 7.7 -0.7 34.1 43.2 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.2 7.7 8.3 -0.6 35.8 44.2 7.5 9.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.2 6.8 8.0 -0.6 36.3 44.3 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.6 7.9 7.6 -0.4 41.2 45.9 7.1 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 9.0 -0.6 39.6 43.7 9.1 9.8 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 8.6 8.8 9.1 -0.7 38.0 43.1 8.7 10.1 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.8 8.0 -0.5 38.2 45.1 8.3 10.1 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.9 -1.0 33.7 39.5 8.5 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.5 7.1 -0.7 34.1 43.1 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.9 10.4 -0.8 37.3 42.2 8.4 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.3 5.8 -0.9 32.7 40.8 3.3 4.8 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.3 10.0 -0.8 36.4 42.6 7.9 9.8 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.0 9.9 -0.9 35.1 40.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.7 10.3 -0.6 41.1 44.0 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.3 8.9 -0.6 38.4 44.1 8.0 9.4 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.5 8.5 9.2 -0.8 34.9 42.2 8.2 10.0 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.4 7.7 8.0 -0.4 38.7 45.6 7.0 9.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.4 9.9 -0.8 36.6 42.1 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.0 8.8 -0.7 36.9 42.4 6.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.7 6.6 -0.8 34.5 42.7 6.7 7.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.2 10.5 -0.9 36.5 41.2 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------