***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.5 0.1 54.7 51.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.8 12.1 -0.2 47.1 47.8 9.2 10.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.7 13.2 12.3 0.2 54.3 52.0 11.3 13.2 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.0 8.8 10.4 0.2 59.0 53.6 6.6 8.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.5 10.7 10.4 0.4 61.6 55.6 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.5 8.8 0.5 59.4 57.3 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.8 12.1 -0.1 49.0 48.2 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.5 8.9 0.3 54.9 54.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.3 11.0 10.9 0.4 59.5 55.7 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.6 9.4 0.4 57.3 55.3 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.6 10.1 0.6 63.0 58.0 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.7 9.5 9.7 0.5 59.6 56.5 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 8.3 10.6 9.2 0.6 64.0 58.0 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.9 10.8 0.3 57.0 53.8 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 9.7 11.3 11.0 0.3 57.8 54.3 9.9 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.2 9.8 0.6 64.3 58.5 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.1 11.8 -0.2 45.4 47.5 9.6 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.5 8.8 0.3 56.0 53.8 8.0 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.5 12.1 0.0 49.6 49.2 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.1 7.3 0.0 51.5 51.0 4.5 5.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.0 10.4 11.8 0.3 57.3 53.8 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.6 11.7 -0.1 47.3 48.5 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.5 12.0 0.2 55.5 51.8 9.1 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.5 10.6 0.3 58.2 54.1 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.5 11.0 0.2 55.3 52.2 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 8.7 10.2 9.4 0.3 55.4 55.4 8.6 10.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.8 12.0 11.7 0.1 55.0 51.5 9.6 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.9 9.6 10.6 0.3 58.9 54.6 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 8.9 8.3 0.3 55.0 53.8 7.2 8.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.8 12.3 -0.1 50.4 48.8 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------