***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 13.4 0.0 53.7 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.2 13.1 -0.1 52.6 48.8 9.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.4 13.3 0.2 58.8 53.4 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.7 11.5 0.2 54.7 54.5 8.0 8.5 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.8 11.5 0.3 56.5 55.9 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.7 10.0 0.4 56.1 58.2 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 13.0 -0.2 50.0 47.3 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.6 9.9 0.3 57.0 55.9 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.8 11.9 0.4 58.4 56.4 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.7 10.5 0.4 57.5 56.4 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.1 11.2 0.5 59.7 59.6 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.7 10.8 0.5 61.0 59.0 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.3 10.3 0.6 59.1 59.9 9.3 9.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.7 11.8 0.3 58.8 54.6 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.1 12.2 0.4 56.3 57.7 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 10.9 0.5 58.9 59.7 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 12.6 -0.2 53.0 47.4 10.5 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 9.7 0.3 57.1 54.5 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.4 13.2 0.0 55.8 51.4 10.1 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 8.2 -0.1 50.9 49.8 5.2 6.4 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.2 12.8 0.3 56.7 54.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.7 12.7 -0.1 53.1 49.1 9.3 10.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.4 13.1 0.3 59.7 54.8 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.2 11.6 0.3 58.7 55.8 10.1 10.7 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.8 12.0 0.1 54.5 53.1 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 10.5 0.4 55.5 56.4 9.0 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.4 12.6 0.0 52.9 51.0 10.3 11.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.8 11.8 0.3 54.8 56.3 9.0 9.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.2 9.2 0.2 56.6 54.5 7.9 9.0 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.4 13.3 -0.1 52.4 49.5 10.5 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------