***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 15.2 0.7 63.6 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 11.7 11.6 14.6 0.6 57.0 58.4 10.3 11.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.7 15.3 1.0 66.1 66.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.0 13.1 0.8 66.8 66.3 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.8 13.4 0.9 67.4 66.4 8.6 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.0 11.5 11.5 1.0 74.6 70.6 8.1 9.3 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.6 11.7 14.7 0.5 55.7 58.4 10.8 11.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.7 6.6 11.5 0.8 66.7 65.0 4.5 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 13.0 12.8 13.9 1.0 69.4 66.7 10.6 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.3 12.2 0.8 65.8 64.4 9.9 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.8 12.8 0.7 63.8 63.2 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.2 12.2 0.9 69.3 66.1 8.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.7 11.9 11.9 0.7 71.2 65.3 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.3 12.9 13.7 0.9 68.7 67.4 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 13.5 14.0 14.3 0.8 69.7 67.1 10.8 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.4 12.7 0.9 72.6 68.0 10.3 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 12.1 11.9 14.2 0.5 56.4 58.1 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.3 11.4 11.2 0.7 66.1 62.6 8.5 9.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.2 14.9 0.8 62.2 63.0 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.4 9.3 0.7 65.6 63.1 5.2 5.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.7 14.9 0.9 67.9 64.8 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 11.3 11.6 14.5 0.7 61.1 61.4 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.6 15.1 1.2 70.6 70.1 9.8 11.1 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.3 13.3 0.8 66.6 65.5 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 11.7 12.7 14.2 0.8 65.5 62.4 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.3 12.1 1.1 74.0 70.0 9.2 10.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 12.0 12.3 14.5 0.7 62.9 61.3 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.9 13.6 0.8 69.3 67.2 8.3 10.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.1 10.5 0.7 65.3 62.9 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 12.3 12.2 15.1 0.7 58.9 60.8 10.9 12.0 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------