***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 54.1 57.9 46.5 122.2 66.3 61.3 33.2 48.7 57.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 57.4 60.6 48.5 124.9 68.9 62.6 33.0 44.0 53.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 56.2 61.0 48.5 125.6 66.4 63.0 40.0 53.9 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 67.5 80.5 50.0 108.8 60.8 57.4 41.0 62.4 88.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 43.9 62.0 57.0 132.0 68.5 65.0 32.9 38.7 59.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 58.5 65.9 74.8 139.9 73.9 69.1 25.9 35.7 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 58.4 58.9 50.7 128.2 70.0 63.8 34.8 48.8 54.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 71.2 87.8 55.2 116.1 65.6 60.7 49.3 66.1 88.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 56.8 57.1 59.2 140.4 69.8 68.1 35.2 43.9 56.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 51.4 54.8 62.4 129.1 69.1 65.1 43.6 47.7 51.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 49.7 53.8 49.0 120.2 65.4 61.0 24.9 45.8 54.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 45.4 58.8 44.5 114.6 64.3 59.9 26.4 40.9 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 56.5 55.1 59.7 131.6 71.4 66.2 28.0 42.3 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 71.9 85.6 60.1 122.9 69.4 64.0 47.8 67.0 79.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 44.5 47.6 44.0 99.2 57.5 54.8 29.0 39.6 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 46.8 50.6 56.5 129.9 70.8 65.2 24.9 38.6 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 55.1 55.7 50.1 124.5 68.8 62.9 31.6 40.6 54.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 47 53 100 68.5 71.4 69.0 128.0 71.5 66.0 40.1 52.6 67.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 50.4 58.3 47.4 123.1 67.1 62.3 37.2 46.3 56.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 63.1 70.5 72.3 118.9 66.6 62.3 49.4 57.8 70.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 55.9 62.2 50.1 129.6 66.6 64.0 43.1 52.7 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 50.1 55.9 48.9 114.9 64.9 60.2 33.9 44.5 57.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 51.0 57.2 48.5 124.5 67.3 63.1 39.1 47.8 56.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 82.6 83.8 62.1 130.9 72.3 66.5 38.9 59.8 67.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 58.3 60.5 52.0 114.9 65.6 59.7 45.1 55.8 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 49.4 52.1 51.2 128.9 68.0 65.4 26.0 36.5 52.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 56.1 57.4 50.2 115.1 64.8 59.2 31.1 51.0 58.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 50.6 54.5 49.4 108.5 61.3 57.9 29.7 47.2 65.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 112.6 108.8 68.9 123.3 70.9 64.6 65.0 78.3 95.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 46.2 59.9 48.0 125.2 68.4 62.6 29.9 41.9 59.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------