***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.3 10.6 8.7 110.3 71.1 52.4 1.0 4.6 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 12.6 9.2 100.8 65.8 53.0 1.0 4.6 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.1 16.9 9.3 111.8 72.4 53.1 2.9 7.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.6 27.2 10.0 107.8 73.6 56.5 10.1 15.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.8 21.9 10.2 122.8 75.1 57.7 8.1 13.5 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.9 24.0 12.9 110.5 71.5 55.4 1.5 8.6 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.8 9.1 101.5 64.0 52.3 1.2 6.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.0 25.5 10.6 114.9 70.7 55.8 6.2 13.8 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.1 16.8 10.5 129.6 76.4 56.9 4.4 11.0 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.0 19.4 11.5 124.5 73.1 57.2 6.5 11.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.2 24.8 9.4 120.1 74.7 57.7 2.7 12.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.6 23.2 8.7 111.9 70.9 55.7 2.3 5.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.9 19.7 10.6 112.4 69.5 57.6 2.6 6.8 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.9 17.3 11.3 100.9 65.2 53.8 6.1 11.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 20.0 9.3 95.2 71.3 56.9 2.3 9.6 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 21.1 9.7 111.3 71.6 57.4 0.7 5.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.7 10.8 8.9 96.4 64.0 51.1 0.5 3.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 15.0 12.6 118.1 71.2 56.2 5.3 9.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.3 9.3 102.1 66.3 53.9 3.0 7.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 16.3 14.2 113.3 67.9 55.7 4.2 11.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.3 20.3 9.2 122.9 76.8 54.9 4.9 9.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.7 10.6 9.4 94.0 60.9 51.6 0.8 5.4 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.8 9.5 103.6 66.8 54.9 3.6 9.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.6 11.4 113.5 71.3 55.4 6.6 11.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.8 25.7 10.7 118.7 74.4 55.8 3.6 8.0 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.1 22.2 10.3 123.9 73.5 58.4 1.4 5.4 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.8 15.3 10.3 113.4 70.1 53.6 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.0 22.2 9.6 100.0 72.1 56.2 4.5 12.2 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.8 27.3 13.3 115.8 69.8 55.6 6.3 15.4 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.7 9.1 103.1 66.3 52.8 2.0 6.8 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------