***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 19.3 9.0 136.9 73.6 55.7 2.0 5.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.0 15.5 9.7 128.2 72.3 57.7 2.5 7.1 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.4 14.6 9.4 133.4 74.8 58.1 3.0 7.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.6 17.7 9.8 108.9 70.9 58.3 3.0 8.1 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.0 12.4 10.0 108.5 70.8 58.1 1.6 5.2 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.0 11.4 12.9 112.3 68.7 59.3 2.5 6.3 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.3 12.1 9.7 121.5 67.9 56.2 2.3 3.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.9 16.9 9.4 87.5 63.8 54.5 4.5 11.7 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.1 14.1 10.4 115.6 71.8 58.3 1.7 3.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.5 18.9 10.8 101.6 66.7 57.0 2.6 7.6 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.2 14.1 7.9 88.2 68.3 55.0 1.4 4.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.8 7.1 86.2 66.7 53.3 1.7 3.7 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.3 14.2 9.8 105.2 70.3 58.9 1.6 5.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 8.7 18.9 11.6 116.3 71.0 60.4 3.6 5.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.4 14.1 8.8 110.1 72.8 59.0 1.5 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.1 11.0 9.0 96.3 68.8 57.1 1.9 4.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.8 9.1 9.9 113.1 68.0 57.1 1.6 4.9 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.2 18.6 13.8 117.3 71.4 59.7 3.6 8.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.3 20.1 9.5 129.3 74.3 58.5 2.9 4.6 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 13.5 19.6 15.9 107.7 68.5 59.0 5.8 10.7 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.5 18.5 9.3 123.0 73.6 56.3 2.3 4.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.1 10.8 9.8 109.2 64.8 56.7 1.9 7.3 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.4 19.3 9.4 125.6 74.0 59.5 3.2 5.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.8 15.0 12.1 126.2 73.6 60.6 3.8 5.3 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.2 14.2 10.5 128.2 73.6 58.1 3.1 4.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.1 18.3 8.9 123.8 74.2 59.2 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.0 17.9 9.9 129.4 73.1 56.4 2.3 4.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.9 9.5 105.1 70.8 58.3 1.1 5.9 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.4 26.5 15.0 118.7 72.2 60.5 5.0 8.1 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.0 12.1 9.5 132.9 72.7 57.4 1.3 5.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------