***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9.4 15.2 8.9 88.9 67.7 55.9 2.2 7.6 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 9.3 13.6 10.4 105.6 69.8 57.0 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.8 14.4 9.9 102.5 70.7 58.3 1.6 7.0 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 18.6 12.5 107.1 72.4 58.9 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.1 19.7 13.7 125.9 76.2 64.1 2.8 5.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.5 15.5 22.0 144.1 78.0 66.9 2.9 6.0 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.8 11.7 11.1 112.9 68.1 58.0 3.9 7.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 22.9 13.2 109.5 71.5 57.7 6.5 15.5 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 16.6 21.0 14.4 133.4 75.8 64.4 2.5 7.8 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.0 18.7 15.3 124.6 73.6 62.6 5.4 7.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.3 19.6 11.2 115.7 75.4 61.6 1.4 7.9 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.6 14.6 10.4 104.8 72.3 56.4 2.7 5.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 12.9 15.0 15.8 124.3 74.8 65.8 2.8 7.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.3 24.6 13.7 113.9 71.9 60.8 2.6 9.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.6 10.6 12.3 105.5 73.8 59.5 1.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 9.1 9.8 14.0 124.3 75.9 65.2 2.7 5.0 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.0 14.0 12.0 123.1 70.0 59.1 4.9 7.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.2 25.5 18.1 128.7 72.8 63.7 3.6 11.3 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.5 19.0 9.7 101.8 71.1 56.3 2.4 6.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 19.9 27.7 19.8 125.0 72.0 62.4 7.0 17.8 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.4 16.8 10.9 110.3 72.0 59.2 2.2 4.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.3 13.7 11.5 115.1 67.1 56.4 2.9 7.1 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.3 15.6 10.0 105.3 72.3 57.7 2.6 8.9 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.3 18.4 14.6 121.8 73.2 62.9 2.9 5.6 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.0 14.8 12.4 102.2 67.9 57.6 3.7 8.5 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.2 17.9 11.2 102.9 71.6 60.1 2.3 7.9 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.1 10.1 11.0 91.6 65.7 54.7 2.3 9.0 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.4 20.6 12.9 110.2 75.2 61.5 0.7 5.1 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.1 30.7 18.1 125.3 73.1 63.0 10.9 15.1 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.7 16.5 9.7 99.8 68.9 56.9 2.3 5.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------