***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 48 52 100 16.5 24.3 19.9 146.4 74.0 66.0 0.9 6.2 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.4 21.4 19.3 155.9 75.4 68.6 2.3 8.7 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 11.3 29.7 19.8 146.9 75.5 66.1 2.2 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.8 18.9 17.6 110.9 69.6 62.0 0.7 6.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 16.7 21.0 23.1 156.5 77.9 71.8 1.3 4.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.9 19.3 26.9 180.3 84.6 76.9 0.5 4.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.8 22.2 20.7 163.5 77.5 70.6 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 25.6 31.9 22.0 141.8 74.2 69.4 2.6 8.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.4 21.7 24.0 167.1 79.8 74.1 1.5 5.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 15.9 19.9 24.8 153.2 76.9 72.3 2.8 6.8 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 13.8 19.1 20.4 143.5 76.7 69.6 0.4 3.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.1 14.2 18.3 142.1 74.9 69.5 1.0 6.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 16.0 23.0 23.5 169.2 83.2 75.7 0.2 3.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 22.3 32.1 23.4 149.6 78.3 69.1 2.4 7.6 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.4 7.0 13.6 91.1 66.4 55.6 0.2 1.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 12.4 17.0 23.9 167.9 80.6 75.1 0.1 4.3 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 20.6 27.4 19.3 154.6 77.6 69.4 1.7 7.8 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 19.0 24.1 24.5 140.8 74.1 69.7 2.8 7.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 21.2 28.0 18.9 151.2 75.3 67.5 3.3 8.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 14.7 19.7 22.4 126.9 69.1 64.9 4.1 12.5 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 20.2 25.3 20.7 151.3 76.1 69.2 2.7 8.1 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 23.0 24.8 18.2 134.6 74.4 66.4 3.1 11.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 17.4 25.1 19.6 153.2 77.4 67.9 3.0 7.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 21.8 28.0 24.0 151.4 78.3 70.0 2.1 9.5 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.5 23.6 18.4 115.9 67.4 62.1 1.2 6.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.6 12.9 20.8 156.0 75.2 71.2 0.2 1.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 10.1 24.3 19.1 127.1 69.7 62.7 1.7 6.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.9 11.7 17.5 115.0 71.9 62.8 0.5 2.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 32.2 30.8 22.4 129.9 70.6 66.3 10.6 21.3 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.6 16.8 19.7 155.8 75.2 68.2 2.8 9.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------