***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 22.5 22.1 22.2 -0.3 46.3 47.4 22.0 22.2 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 23.3 22.9 22.1 -0.3 45.3 45.8 22.1 23.0 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 23.3 22.6 22.2 -0.4 45.4 45.5 22.3 23.1 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 16.3 16.0 20.3 -0.6 43.7 42.8 15.4 16.2 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 24.0 23.4 20.7 -0.4 44.5 44.5 22.7 23.8 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 23.0 22.8 19.2 -0.3 49.0 46.9 22.0 22.9 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 23.1 22.6 22.1 -0.2 47.3 47.6 21.5 22.8 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.6 19.3 -0.4 44.9 45.0 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 23.6 23.2 21.2 -0.4 44.7 45.0 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 23.2 22.8 20.0 -0.4 44.5 45.2 22.0 23.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 23.8 23.5 20.5 -0.3 45.5 45.6 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 23.2 22.9 20.1 -0.5 44.2 43.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 24.4 24.0 19.9 -0.5 46.4 43.8 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 23.8 22.8 21.0 -0.3 45.3 46.4 22.2 23.6 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 23.6 23.1 20.8 -0.7 40.5 41.2 22.8 23.4 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 24.8 24.5 20.3 -0.4 45.8 44.9 23.4 24.6 25.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 22.6 22.1 21.9 -0.2 46.8 47.3 21.4 22.3 23.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 22.6 21.6 19.4 -0.3 44.2 46.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 23.2 22.4 22.2 -0.4 43.8 45.3 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 18.9 18.5 17.6 -0.2 46.5 47.6 18.1 18.7 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 23.6 23.0 21.8 -0.4 44.7 45.0 22.5 23.4 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 23.4 22.4 21.8 -0.3 45.0 45.9 22.1 23.0 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 23.4 22.4 22.1 -0.3 43.0 45.4 22.1 23.1 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 23.3 22.7 20.9 -0.3 44.4 46.3 21.9 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 23.0 22.6 20.9 -0.2 46.4 47.6 22.0 22.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 23.9 23.4 19.6 -0.7 41.9 40.7 22.7 23.7 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 23.3 23.0 21.6 -0.1 48.0 49.4 21.8 23.1 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 23.8 23.1 20.6 -0.7 41.4 41.2 22.7 23.6 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.4 17.9 18.7 -0.2 45.8 48.0 17.0 18.2 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 23.2 22.7 22.3 -0.4 45.9 45.8 21.7 22.9 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------