***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.2 19.5 -0.9 40.9 41.5 19.6 21.4 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.1 21.8 19.5 -0.9 43.8 41.9 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.5 19.6 -1.0 40.8 41.3 20.5 21.9 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.6 17.8 -1.2 40.5 39.6 13.1 13.9 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.4 18.1 -1.0 41.1 40.8 20.8 21.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.4 20.3 17.0 -0.9 43.4 43.0 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.5 19.4 -0.8 43.9 42.8 20.5 21.9 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.4 17.1 -0.9 40.1 42.4 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.9 21.2 18.5 -1.0 39.8 41.0 20.6 21.9 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 19.6 21.0 17.6 -0.9 38.8 42.2 20.1 21.8 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.6 18.0 -0.9 42.3 42.2 20.6 22.0 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.5 17.8 -1.0 40.6 41.1 20.0 21.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 20.7 21.4 17.5 -1.1 40.4 40.2 20.7 22.0 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.0 18.4 -0.9 39.5 42.2 21.2 22.1 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 21.9 20.8 18.1 -1.3 39.4 39.0 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.0 17.8 -1.0 42.7 41.3 21.6 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.0 21.1 19.2 -0.8 45.7 43.0 20.2 21.4 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 19.3 20.6 17.1 -0.8 38.6 43.0 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.9 21.3 19.6 -0.9 44.0 41.6 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 16.0 16.9 15.4 -0.7 40.1 43.6 15.9 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 19.9 21.3 19.1 -1.0 40.3 40.7 20.5 21.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.9 19.2 -0.9 46.5 42.0 20.3 22.2 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.4 19.5 -0.9 42.8 41.5 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.4 18.4 -0.9 39.4 42.3 20.3 22.1 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.9 18.2 -0.9 41.3 41.8 19.8 21.3 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.1 17.3 -1.3 38.5 38.2 20.0 22.0 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.2 21.2 18.8 -0.8 41.2 42.6 20.8 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.4 20.4 18.0 -1.3 40.1 39.0 20.0 21.8 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 15.4 15.8 16.4 -0.7 39.6 43.5 15.4 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.3 19.6 -0.9 42.2 41.7 20.7 21.8 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------