***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 23.5 23.2 22.9 -0.1 51.9 51.4 22.0 23.1 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 23.4 22.9 22.8 -0.3 50.1 49.2 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 23.6 23.2 22.8 -0.3 49.9 49.1 22.6 23.2 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 16.9 16.7 21.1 -0.4 49.7 48.8 15.7 16.7 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 24.9 24.6 21.3 -0.4 48.2 48.5 23.5 24.6 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.7 23.2 19.8 -0.1 46.0 51.2 22.3 23.2 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 23.5 23.3 22.8 -0.1 53.3 51.0 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.2 19.9 -0.4 45.2 47.3 12.0 13.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.1 21.6 -0.3 47.4 48.2 23.3 24.1 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.0 23.5 20.5 -0.3 46.0 47.9 23.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.6 24.2 21.0 -0.3 47.6 48.8 24.0 24.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 24.0 23.5 20.7 -0.5 43.7 46.5 22.9 23.7 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 25.2 24.3 20.3 -0.5 42.0 46.7 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.4 21.4 -0.3 47.2 48.1 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 24.4 23.9 21.4 -0.5 47.6 48.6 23.4 24.1 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 25.6 25.1 20.8 -0.4 45.7 48.4 24.3 25.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 22.9 22.5 22.5 -0.2 51.3 49.9 20.7 22.4 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 23.0 22.5 20.0 -0.3 45.8 48.1 22.0 22.6 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 23.3 22.5 22.8 -0.3 48.6 48.5 21.6 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.5 18.9 18.1 -0.3 46.1 48.0 17.9 19.0 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 24.3 24.0 22.3 -0.3 48.8 48.8 23.3 24.0 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 23.5 22.5 22.4 -0.3 48.0 48.0 21.4 22.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 23.4 22.4 22.6 -0.3 47.7 48.4 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.5 21.4 -0.3 46.9 48.6 22.8 23.5 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 23.6 23.5 21.5 -0.1 53.7 52.4 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 25.1 24.0 20.2 -0.7 42.3 44.9 22.9 24.8 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 23.7 23.7 22.3 0.1 55.7 53.3 22.3 23.4 24.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 24.5 23.8 21.2 -0.6 46.9 47.6 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.2 18.9 19.1 -0.2 46.1 48.5 17.3 19.0 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 23.0 22.5 22.9 -0.3 51.1 49.4 21.6 22.5 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------