***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 25.3 26.3 24.8 0.5 62.5 58.5 24.2 25.0 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 25.4 25.6 24.6 0.2 54.1 54.2 24.1 25.1 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 25.4 25.8 24.8 0.3 58.8 55.7 24.2 25.1 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 17.7 17.9 22.4 0.0 55.3 53.1 16.5 17.5 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 25.5 25.8 23.4 0.3 56.0 55.2 24.6 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 96 4 100 24.2 24.3 21.2 0.3 52.2 53.2 22.4 24.1 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 25.0 25.8 24.6 0.4 57.5 56.2 23.6 24.8 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 94 6 100 13.9 13.7 21.3 0.0 50.3 51.9 11.9 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 25.3 25.6 24.1 0.3 58.0 55.7 24.4 25.0 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 24.6 24.7 22.3 0.1 54.2 53.2 23.7 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 25.0 24.9 23.1 0.2 53.5 54.2 24.1 24.8 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 94 6 100 24.4 24.1 22.2 0.0 48.0 51.1 22.9 24.2 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 97 3 100 25.6 25.5 22.4 0.2 52.2 52.4 24.1 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 24.9 25.5 23.5 0.3 55.4 54.8 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 25.5 25.8 23.9 -0.1 54.1 52.7 24.4 25.3 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 25.8 26.0 22.9 0.3 53.1 54.1 24.6 25.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 24.7 24.8 24.2 0.3 54.5 54.5 22.8 24.6 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 24.0 23.9 21.5 0.2 55.1 54.0 22.7 23.8 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 25.1 25.3 24.6 0.2 54.5 53.5 23.7 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 20.1 20.3 19.6 0.3 55.0 54.7 18.0 20.0 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 25.6 25.9 24.7 0.3 60.1 56.2 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 25.2 25.3 24.0 0.2 55.2 52.7 22.7 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 25.3 25.4 24.5 0.2 55.2 53.5 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 24.8 24.9 23.3 0.3 57.1 55.0 23.7 24.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 25.4 26.2 23.7 0.6 63.4 59.2 24.0 25.1 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 97 3 100 25.3 25.1 21.5 -0.3 47.2 48.2 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 25.2 26.2 24.4 0.7 64.2 60.4 24.0 24.9 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 25.5 25.6 23.0 -0.1 52.4 51.4 24.5 25.3 27.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 19.4 19.4 20.9 0.4 57.6 55.9 17.9 19.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 25.1 25.7 24.8 0.2 56.2 54.7 23.9 24.9 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------