***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.7 13.4 0.4 54.8 58.4 10.0 10.5 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.9 13.2 0.5 57.2 59.7 9.9 10.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.2 13.2 0.4 56.0 58.5 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.4 11.0 0.5 60.7 59.9 7.8 8.3 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.6 11.1 0.5 62.5 60.7 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.1 9.4 9.7 0.6 62.6 61.8 8.2 9.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.2 13.3 0.4 57.4 59.3 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 4.8 5.2 9.6 0.5 58.0 59.5 3.8 4.6 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.5 11.6 0.5 61.1 61.0 9.9 10.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.8 11.0 10.1 0.6 62.1 61.6 9.7 10.6 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.7 10.8 0.5 63.2 61.7 9.3 10.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 9.1 9.1 10.3 0.4 55.6 57.5 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.8 10.0 9.9 0.4 57.5 57.4 9.1 9.7 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.2 11.5 0.5 59.7 59.9 10.3 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.4 11.5 0.2 54.0 55.2 10.7 11.0 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.5 10.5 0.5 62.7 60.2 10.0 11.2 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 11.6 11.4 13.0 0.6 65.2 63.6 10.1 10.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 9.4 9.8 9.4 0.5 63.1 61.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.1 13.2 0.5 59.3 59.9 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 5.9 6.1 8.1 0.5 61.0 59.9 4.9 5.7 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.8 12.6 0.4 56.0 58.9 9.6 10.7 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.5 12.9 0.5 61.4 61.0 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.0 12.9 0.5 61.4 59.9 9.3 10.0 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.8 11.3 0.5 60.5 60.4 9.7 10.5 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.5 11.9 0.5 60.1 59.9 9.6 11.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.2 52.2 52.9 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 12.6 0.5 59.8 60.5 9.9 11.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.8 11.2 0.3 56.2 56.5 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 8.9 9.2 9.0 0.5 62.3 60.7 7.8 8.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.4 13.4 0.4 55.6 58.1 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------