***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.2 11.1 0.0 56.1 51.3 8.5 10.0 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 11.1 0.1 56.9 52.3 8.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.1 10.9 0.0 52.5 50.5 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.7 6.9 8.7 -0.1 45.7 48.9 6.1 7.3 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.7 8.8 0.0 49.9 50.3 7.1 8.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.3 7.5 0.1 48.7 52.0 6.6 8.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.2 11.1 0.1 58.2 52.5 8.4 9.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.7 7.5 0.0 45.0 49.7 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.2 9.2 0.0 53.8 51.4 8.9 9.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.7 7.9 0.1 49.4 51.4 7.9 9.9 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 8.5 0.0 47.3 50.6 7.4 9.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.6 8.1 -0.1 44.0 48.2 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.2 7.7 -0.1 48.1 48.3 7.4 8.3 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.4 9.2 0.0 51.7 50.5 9.0 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.4 9.2 -0.1 49.6 50.2 8.5 10.4 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.5 8.2 -0.1 46.0 49.2 8.8 9.9 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.2 10.8 0.2 59.6 54.7 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.4 7.3 0.0 47.3 50.3 7.1 8.6 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.0 11.0 0.0 55.9 52.0 8.6 9.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.4 6.1 -0.1 44.5 48.6 3.7 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.9 10.2 0.0 51.5 50.9 8.2 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.2 10.7 0.1 56.9 53.5 7.8 8.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.2 10.6 0.0 56.0 51.2 8.5 8.9 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 9.1 0.0 49.9 50.4 8.2 9.8 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.0 9.5 0.0 51.5 51.4 8.7 9.7 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.5 7.9 -0.4 43.3 44.8 7.4 9.2 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.6 10.3 0.1 55.6 52.4 8.1 10.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.0 9.0 -0.2 45.8 48.4 6.9 8.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.4 6.9 -0.1 45.0 49.0 6.8 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 11.2 0.0 56.1 51.3 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------