***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.7 12.6 0.1 54.4 51.9 9.8 10.6 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.1 10.8 12.5 0.1 54.7 52.7 9.5 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 12.3 0.0 54.6 50.8 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.5 10.0 -0.1 48.7 49.1 7.5 8.5 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.3 10.1 0.0 50.6 49.9 8.8 10.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.0 8.8 0.2 51.4 53.4 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.8 12.5 0.1 54.3 52.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.8 8.8 0.1 52.1 51.1 4.1 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 10.6 0.0 53.8 50.6 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.6 9.2 0.1 52.5 50.9 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.3 9.8 0.1 49.1 50.7 8.4 10.4 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.7 9.4 -0.1 49.2 49.0 8.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.7 8.9 -0.1 49.1 48.6 8.6 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.7 10.7 0.0 52.5 51.1 9.9 10.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.8 10.4 -0.2 49.5 47.6 10.2 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.0 9.5 0.0 48.5 49.6 10.3 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.7 12.2 0.3 55.4 54.8 9.8 10.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.6 8.6 0.1 54.6 51.1 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.7 12.4 0.1 54.8 52.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.4 7.5 0.2 56.3 53.2 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 11.6 0.0 53.7 50.4 9.4 10.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.7 12.1 0.2 56.0 53.8 9.3 9.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.0 12.0 0.1 53.0 51.3 9.4 9.9 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.5 10.4 0.0 53.6 50.8 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.4 11.4 10.9 0.1 51.8 51.8 10.1 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.0 9.3 -0.1 49.2 47.6 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.6 11.7 0.2 54.0 52.5 10.2 11.4 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.5 10.2 -0.2 47.8 47.2 8.0 9.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.9 8.2 0.1 53.8 51.6 7.3 8.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.8 12.6 0.1 55.2 51.7 10.1 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------