***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.7 13.1 15.8 1.1 70.0 67.6 10.7 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.6 15.6 1.2 73.9 71.6 10.3 11.1 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 15.0 14.9 15.6 1.2 71.7 69.3 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 11.5 11.8 13.6 1.6 76.6 76.4 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 12.4 11.9 13.8 1.4 73.5 73.8 8.6 10.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 11.1 11.2 11.9 1.4 73.4 73.6 8.1 9.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 12.7 12.8 15.6 1.1 70.0 69.8 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 7.0 6.9 11.7 1.2 72.6 70.7 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 13.5 13.3 14.3 1.4 73.8 73.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 13.0 13.2 12.5 1.3 74.6 73.0 10.2 11.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.7 12.9 13.3 1.4 72.9 73.2 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 10.8 11.0 12.4 1.2 71.5 70.3 8.1 9.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.7 11.7 12.3 1.2 70.8 72.3 8.9 10.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 13.6 13.8 14.0 1.3 74.4 73.2 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 12.4 13.8 14.3 0.8 63.8 63.8 11.0 12.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 13.2 13.4 13.2 1.5 75.8 75.5 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 13.2 14.0 15.3 1.5 80.1 75.3 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 11.6 11.8 11.6 1.3 75.2 74.4 9.0 10.0 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 12.8 12.9 15.6 1.3 74.5 72.1 10.5 11.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 8.0 8.5 9.7 1.2 73.2 72.4 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.0 15.2 1.2 71.6 70.1 10.0 11.1 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.4 15.2 1.2 72.2 70.8 9.9 11.2 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 12.6 13.1 15.5 1.4 75.8 73.5 10.0 10.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 13.1 13.4 13.7 1.3 74.8 73.4 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 12.7 12.7 14.5 1.1 69.6 67.9 9.7 10.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.7 11.9 12.0 1.1 71.0 68.4 9.2 10.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.8 15.1 1.2 70.7 69.0 10.3 11.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.9 13.9 1.2 71.0 71.0 8.7 9.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 11.2 11.1 11.0 1.3 74.2 74.4 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.2 15.8 1.1 70.5 68.8 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------