***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 54.1 54.2 47.3 110.9 62.9 54.2 33.1 48.7 57.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 29.0 53.2 42.8 104.3 62.5 53.5 33.2 43.7 57.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 55.9 55.8 44.8 104.6 60.9 53.3 39.1 52.2 60.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 40.4 72.5 50.1 103.0 60.7 51.8 39.5 61.8 84.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 45.5 56.6 45.9 102.7 60.6 51.7 25.3 36.9 59.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 23.5 37.4 44.9 88.4 50.3 44.7 25.0 37.2 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 52.6 54.0 42.8 103.7 61.0 53.2 36.3 49.0 56.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 70.6 66.1 47.2 92.8 52.7 46.9 49.6 61.4 86.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 47.7 44.0 44.7 99.2 57.1 50.3 34.5 42.2 56.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 35.0 48.0 48.9 94.6 54.1 48.1 40.0 46.5 51.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 50.3 46.7 42.2 96.7 57.6 48.6 24.9 43.5 55.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 48.1 43.2 39.9 93.0 53.4 46.9 26.4 39.9 60.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.3 46.0 42.2 90.2 50.8 46.0 26.2 45.2 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 43.9 61.9 52.2 92.9 50.8 48.2 47.8 61.5 71.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 22.0 54.2 47.0 107.2 62.7 52.4 29.0 36.1 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 25.1 41.6 42.0 94.0 55.9 47.5 22.7 38.6 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 45.6 47.9 42.7 101.5 58.2 51.8 30.6 40.6 53.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 36.9 49.1 53.2 93.4 51.6 47.4 38.9 47.3 63.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 31.4 53.8 43.0 103.9 61.7 53.6 35.3 46.8 56.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 64.5 58.9 60.9 96.7 53.1 49.0 45.7 58.4 71.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 57.3 56.9 44.7 103.3 60.2 52.3 41.3 52.7 61.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 51.6 50.6 44.0 100.0 56.7 51.2 32.6 43.2 57.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 31.2 51.3 42.7 99.3 58.1 51.9 33.5 46.2 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 36.5 60.1 48.9 95.0 53.1 48.7 36.9 57.4 67.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 59.8 61.0 53.8 114.0 66.0 55.0 45.1 56.1 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.0 34.7 42.2 94.4 54.6 47.3 24.6 29.5 50.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 56.5 59.7 51.3 113.0 65.2 54.2 30.3 50.7 60.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 27.3 54.3 45.9 100.9 60.2 50.6 24.2 47.2 65.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 62.2 82.3 56.4 95.1 51.6 47.7 62.2 80.1 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 28.3 54.4 43.8 105.2 63.7 53.5 28.7 41.3 59.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------