***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.1 14.4 125.6 70.0 59.0 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.2 14.7 13.2 124.3 69.0 60.5 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.9 13.5 118.1 69.0 58.2 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.2 34.4 18.5 157.0 75.8 62.0 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 22.4 15.7 145.4 75.0 59.3 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.7 26.9 15.5 137.2 73.6 58.2 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.5 13.0 13.0 119.3 67.7 58.8 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.4 23.8 15.8 131.0 70.4 58.0 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.0 15.5 138.7 74.0 58.1 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.7 22.4 16.4 132.1 71.8 57.3 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.1 24.3 14.0 135.9 72.4 58.4 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 19.8 13.6 135.2 71.6 59.1 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.0 20.5 14.7 138.9 72.5 58.4 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.1 21.8 16.9 116.1 67.5 57.6 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 21.9 17.8 160.4 77.0 60.8 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 19.0 14.4 139.2 72.2 59.3 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.4 10.7 12.5 110.8 65.5 58.4 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 18.4 17.8 126.8 68.8 57.1 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.5 12.8 13.3 123.5 69.4 60.4 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.0 21.0 130.3 69.5 58.3 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.4 20.0 14.6 135.3 71.7 59.5 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.0 11.3 12.9 109.3 64.5 57.5 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.8 12.9 13.3 116.1 68.0 59.2 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.2 16.9 15.8 120.1 68.8 57.1 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.3 26.2 17.2 144.3 72.7 60.7 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.3 19.3 15.5 151.5 74.0 59.1 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 17.1 15.6 132.8 71.1 59.3 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 29.2 17.3 155.9 75.6 61.2 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 29.6 18.7 126.4 69.1 56.8 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.2 11.5 13.3 122.3 68.8 59.7 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------