***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 14.5 10.8 102.3 66.6 56.8 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 6.7 9.2 9.6 97.3 64.1 55.0 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.7 10.5 97.5 66.3 54.7 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.4 12.6 107.3 66.0 55.4 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.7 11.1 101.6 65.5 53.9 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.5 12.8 103.9 65.1 53.1 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.0 6.8 9.2 94.8 64.8 55.3 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.7 12.1 105.4 64.3 54.7 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.2 10.7 94.3 63.7 53.6 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.8 11.8 96.1 62.2 53.7 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.0 10.5 104.0 64.2 54.0 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.8 7.1 10.6 108.8 65.6 55.0 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.4 11.6 107.2 64.2 54.4 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.0 12.0 13.1 93.9 61.4 53.5 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.3 12.2 12.6 117.1 69.3 56.1 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.3 5.1 11.0 105.9 64.6 54.2 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.0 6.9 10.4 106.7 64.2 57.1 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.1 12.8 95.3 62.2 52.0 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.2 6.4 10.0 98.8 64.8 54.7 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.4 15.6 106.4 66.0 53.9 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.0 10.5 95.2 64.9 54.2 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.0 10.8 12.0 113.7 65.9 56.5 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.0 13.9 10.4 96.9 64.4 54.5 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.3 11.9 93.2 61.8 53.0 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.9 12.2 103.6 67.2 56.0 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.9 12.0 121.2 68.3 56.0 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.6 15.1 11.6 104.5 67.2 56.6 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.0 12.3 112.1 67.2 55.4 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 17.6 13.6 98.0 61.1 52.4 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.0 9.2 9.7 94.7 65.1 55.1 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------