***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 21.8 14.3 132.1 71.8 50.2 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 20.4 11.9 115.5 73.3 47.6 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.6 18.8 12.6 117.1 71.2 50.1 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.8 12.9 93.8 65.3 46.9 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 16.6 11.4 96.5 65.4 47.7 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.2 10.4 72.2 56.6 43.3 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.0 22.6 13.2 129.2 74.4 52.0 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.4 18.4 9.6 77.9 56.8 45.9 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.2 20.4 11.2 96.3 65.1 48.2 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.6 11.0 87.1 60.2 48.1 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.9 10.0 85.2 60.5 46.3 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.8 7.9 72.1 58.5 44.1 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.6 8.7 67.2 56.1 43.4 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.0 25.4 11.2 79.7 58.7 44.5 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 11.3 12.3 94.3 68.3 46.5 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.5 9.7 78.3 61.2 45.9 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.4 20.0 11.3 104.8 69.3 49.0 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.7 19.6 12.4 90.1 59.2 47.9 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.3 20.0 11.1 106.7 70.9 46.3 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 21.1 12.8 86.7 56.4 46.1 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.4 23.6 12.2 105.0 68.6 48.3 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.5 10.0 89.6 63.7 46.0 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.1 15.8 10.5 97.5 65.8 46.6 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.9 14.2 11.7 87.6 59.9 45.5 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.9 30.0 16.5 129.7 72.1 49.6 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.6 14.6 9.1 74.1 60.6 46.3 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.1 27.8 16.2 134.8 73.3 50.4 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.5 11.0 84.9 64.6 46.2 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.2 12.9 89.1 58.2 46.8 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.6 23.1 13.0 126.7 75.0 49.4 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------