***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 0.6 3.9 7.9 79.9 56.2 43.5 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.5 7.7 8.0 79.0 58.1 43.7 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.4 6.3 8.2 83.3 59.5 43.9 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 7.3 6.1 54.1 53.2 36.8 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.8 7.7 69.0 55.9 40.1 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 1.1 2.2 6.1 48.0 44.6 32.7 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.5 4.9 7.4 70.8 56.3 42.8 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.4 9.6 9.6 64.5 49.4 38.1 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 1.4 4.1 7.3 67.0 53.6 40.0 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.2 9.8 67.7 50.5 39.0 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.6 7.6 67.0 54.0 39.9 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.5 7.6 7.8 64.3 52.5 38.5 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.3 3.1 7.3 58.1 48.5 37.5 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.5 11.0 80.8 53.5 43.8 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 0.7 2.4 4.3 47.9 56.9 36.6 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.7 5.0 6.9 59.7 51.7 38.0 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.1 9.7 8.5 82.7 60.7 45.1 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.9 10.2 64.9 47.9 39.2 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.1 9.1 8.5 85.1 58.6 44.6 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.1 9.1 11.6 66.3 46.0 39.0 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.0 6.8 7.4 75.3 57.4 41.9 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.4 13.2 9.1 87.2 59.9 44.6 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.7 5.0 8.5 84.8 57.2 45.2 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.9 9.4 78.9 54.3 42.4 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 1.2 3.8 7.8 73.1 57.1 41.4 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 0.5 1.1 5.7 45.9 47.0 33.9 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 1.0 5.4 7.9 75.2 55.9 42.4 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 0.6 2.2 5.4 50.9 53.5 35.4 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 5.8 14.0 11.3 69.7 48.9 41.1 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.4 7.7 7.8 76.4 56.3 43.3 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------