***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.9 23.9 0.9 63.9 60.9 21.9 22.3 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.0 23.6 0.6 59.7 57.2 22.3 22.9 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.9 23.9 0.5 57.9 56.6 22.3 23.1 24.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 16.7 16.7 21.7 1.2 71.4 66.2 15.5 16.1 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.0 23.9 22.2 0.6 57.0 57.5 22.7 23.8 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 22.9 23.6 20.7 1.1 71.1 65.7 22.0 22.7 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.7 23.7 0.8 63.6 60.3 21.8 22.7 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.8 20.8 0.5 57.3 56.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 23.7 23.7 22.7 0.5 56.0 56.6 22.5 23.5 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.7 21.5 0.7 59.9 58.7 22.0 23.2 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 23.8 23.7 22.4 0.4 55.4 55.5 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.2 23.3 21.9 0.4 56.1 55.0 22.2 22.9 23.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 24.3 24.3 21.8 0.4 56.6 55.4 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 23.7 24.6 22.5 0.6 59.5 58.0 22.2 23.4 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 24.1 24.3 23.5 1.2 71.4 66.2 22.9 23.4 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.8 22.2 0.7 61.0 58.5 23.4 24.4 25.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.6 23.4 23.3 0.7 62.8 59.1 21.6 22.2 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 22.6 22.9 20.8 0.7 58.1 58.8 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.6 23.8 0.5 58.2 56.4 21.9 22.8 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.7 18.7 0.5 56.5 57.7 18.0 18.6 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.8 23.5 0.7 59.4 58.8 22.3 23.4 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 23.4 24.1 23.3 0.7 61.9 58.6 22.2 22.9 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.6 23.9 0.5 57.6 56.5 22.3 23.0 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.9 22.5 0.6 58.0 58.1 22.0 22.9 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.2 23.6 22.4 0.8 63.5 61.0 22.0 22.8 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.4 21.6 0.7 61.9 59.7 22.7 23.5 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.9 23.3 1.0 66.0 62.5 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 24.4 24.6 22.5 1.3 73.1 67.0 22.8 23.6 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.3 19.9 0.4 54.5 56.0 16.9 18.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.7 23.8 0.6 60.4 57.7 21.8 22.8 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------