***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.5 21.0 -0.2 49.2 49.3 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.2 20.9 -0.3 47.4 48.5 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.0 21.3 -0.3 48.0 48.7 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.5 18.9 -0.1 50.4 50.9 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.0 19.4 -0.5 47.0 48.2 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.8 17.9 -0.2 48.8 49.6 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.1 20.9 -0.1 50.0 50.0 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.9 18.3 -0.6 44.9 46.8 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.8 19.8 -0.4 47.3 48.5 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.9 18.9 -0.4 46.7 48.8 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.8 21.8 19.5 -0.7 46.0 47.3 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.2 21.2 19.2 -0.8 44.0 45.6 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.1 18.6 -0.7 45.0 46.3 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.5 19.7 -0.3 48.7 49.4 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.3 19.9 0.0 52.1 50.7 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.6 22.8 19.2 -0.5 47.5 48.1 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.5 20.7 -0.1 50.5 49.7 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.2 18.4 -0.4 46.7 48.9 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.5 21.1 -0.3 46.9 48.0 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.0 16.1 -0.6 44.8 47.1 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.8 20.5 -0.3 48.7 48.8 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.0 20.7 -0.1 50.4 49.5 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.0 21.2 -0.4 48.4 48.2 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.2 19.7 -0.3 47.5 49.2 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.4 19.4 -0.2 49.9 49.5 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.5 18.8 -0.5 45.0 46.9 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.0 20.3 -0.1 50.4 50.1 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.9 19.4 0.0 51.1 51.3 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.4 17.5 -0.6 45.4 47.6 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.6 21.0 -0.3 48.0 48.7 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------