***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 21.6 23.0 23.2 0.5 50.9 54.7 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.2 23.0 0.3 48.3 53.2 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.4 23.4 0.3 47.3 52.8 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 21.3 0.8 55.2 57.5 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.0 21.6 0.3 47.5 52.0 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.1 19.9 0.6 53.4 54.9 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 21.1 22.7 23.1 0.5 51.0 55.5 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.6 20.5 0.2 46.1 51.7 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.7 22.0 0.3 47.2 52.1 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.7 21.1 0.4 47.8 53.4 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.9 21.7 0.2 47.1 51.1 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.2 21.5 0.1 45.6 50.1 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.2 20.8 0.2 48.1 51.6 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 21.3 22.7 21.8 0.3 48.2 53.7 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 22.0 24.1 22.2 0.9 58.5 58.0 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.0 21.4 0.4 49.4 53.0 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.0 22.7 0.4 48.3 54.5 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 20.5 22.0 20.5 0.4 46.8 54.0 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.2 23.1 0.2 46.9 52.4 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.7 18.0 18.2 0.3 44.8 52.6 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.2 22.9 22.7 0.4 47.9 53.0 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.5 22.5 22.6 0.2 47.8 53.2 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.7 23.3 0.2 46.4 52.5 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 21.1 22.7 21.9 0.4 47.8 53.9 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.1 21.6 0.6 53.0 55.3 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.7 21.2 0.4 53.0 53.1 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.1 22.5 0.7 54.1 56.3 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.7 21.7 0.9 57.1 58.0 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 15.6 16.9 19.6 0.2 45.1 52.3 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 21.3 22.9 23.1 0.3 48.4 53.5 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------