***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 21.7 24.1 24.1 0.5 58.8 53.7 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 21.7 23.8 23.9 0.3 52.0 51.5 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 22.5 24.5 24.1 0.1 52.4 50.8 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.8 22.0 1.1 65.2 59.8 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.1 22.6 0.3 56.4 53.2 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 22.1 24.4 21.0 0.9 64.1 57.6 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.7 23.9 24.0 0.5 55.4 53.1 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.2 13.9 21.0 0.3 54.7 52.4 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.5 25.0 23.1 0.2 54.4 52.1 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.1 24.6 21.8 0.4 56.8 53.6 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.8 22.9 0.2 54.0 52.1 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 22.1 24.0 22.2 0.2 53.1 51.8 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.2 25.0 22.3 0.1 52.5 51.9 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 21.5 23.7 22.8 0.3 52.6 52.0 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.9 24.2 1.1 65.8 59.3 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 23.3 25.6 22.6 0.4 57.4 54.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.8 23.0 23.7 0.5 54.2 53.1 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.1 23.4 21.0 0.4 55.5 52.7 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 21.4 23.6 24.0 0.2 51.8 51.1 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.0 19.8 19.0 0.3 53.7 51.6 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.7 23.8 0.3 56.4 52.7 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.8 23.7 0.5 55.1 53.7 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.6 23.8 24.1 0.2 52.8 51.2 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 21.8 24.0 22.8 0.3 53.8 51.9 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 22.2 24.4 22.8 0.5 59.5 54.3 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 23.3 25.5 22.0 0.5 60.1 54.0 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 22.2 24.4 23.5 0.6 60.5 54.8 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.1 25.0 23.0 1.2 66.1 60.2 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 17.2 19.7 20.1 0.2 52.4 50.6 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.7 24.0 0.3 52.8 51.6 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------