***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 26.4 27.3 27.3 2.6 83.1 80.2 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 26.6 26.9 26.8 2.0 76.9 73.4 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 26.7 27.0 26.9 2.0 75.6 73.0 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 20.1 21.0 24.5 2.9 83.8 82.6 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 27.3 27.9 25.4 2.1 76.4 73.7 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 26.0 27.6 24.1 3.1 84.5 82.4 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 26.3 27.4 26.9 2.3 81.5 76.8 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.1 23.4 2.2 74.7 72.9 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 26.7 27.1 26.1 1.9 75.7 72.1 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 26.4 26.6 24.2 2.2 75.6 73.8 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 26.9 27.0 25.8 2.0 73.5 71.5 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 26.0 26.3 24.7 2.1 75.2 72.8 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 26.9 27.1 25.5 2.0 74.6 71.7 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 26.3 26.7 25.5 2.0 74.0 72.2 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 27.3 28.1 27.7 2.8 84.5 82.0 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 28.1 28.4 25.6 2.3 77.1 75.0 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 25.8 26.3 26.3 2.1 78.0 74.0 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 25.6 26.0 23.3 2.2 74.5 73.1 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 26.5 26.7 26.9 2.0 75.7 72.8 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 21.9 22.3 21.5 2.2 75.9 73.5 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 27.0 27.5 27.0 2.3 79.8 76.4 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 26.5 27.1 26.2 2.1 77.8 73.8 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 26.6 27.1 26.9 2.0 75.1 72.3 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 26.1 26.1 25.6 2.1 74.2 72.3 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 26.7 27.0 26.0 2.4 81.4 78.1 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 26.6 27.0 24.5 2.5 78.0 75.4 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 26.4 27.3 26.7 2.6 83.7 80.3 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 27.6 28.7 26.0 3.0 84.7 82.9 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 21.2 20.8 22.4 1.9 72.9 70.8 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 26.4 26.9 26.9 2.1 78.0 74.5 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------