***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.8 14.3 1.0 72.6 65.2 10.1 10.8 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.6 13.6 0.7 66.4 60.3 10.1 10.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.8 14.2 0.7 66.9 61.2 12.1 12.7 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 9.1 9.8 11.6 0.9 73.3 66.7 7.8 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.7 12.0 0.7 67.3 62.3 8.8 9.9 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 9.5 9.9 10.1 1.0 76.0 69.0 8.3 8.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.5 13.7 0.7 66.8 60.1 10.3 11.0 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.6 10.0 0.8 70.6 64.4 3.9 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.6 12.1 0.7 65.2 61.0 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.4 10.6 0.8 68.4 62.9 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.7 11.5 0.7 63.5 61.1 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.8 10.7 0.8 68.4 63.8 8.4 8.9 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.9 10.1 0.5 58.0 58.9 9.2 9.8 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.5 11.9 0.7 65.5 60.6 10.5 11.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.0 13.2 1.0 76.1 68.5 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.6 10.9 0.7 62.9 61.9 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.6 13.3 0.7 65.8 59.9 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.1 9.9 0.8 69.6 62.8 8.4 9.4 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.5 13.7 0.7 66.2 60.0 10.0 10.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.5 8.2 0.8 72.9 64.1 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.2 13.4 0.8 69.2 62.9 9.5 10.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.7 13.4 0.6 64.5 59.6 9.4 10.3 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.2 13.7 0.6 65.1 59.4 9.4 10.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.3 11.8 0.7 67.3 61.2 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 11.9 11.8 13.3 1.0 73.3 66.7 9.6 11.4 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.3 9.9 0.7 65.4 63.2 9.1 10.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 12.3 12.5 13.8 1.0 73.7 66.3 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 10.0 10.2 11.9 0.9 73.9 67.5 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.4 9.3 0.7 68.9 61.8 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.9 14.0 0.7 67.1 60.8 10.4 11.4 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------